| Saison cyclonique 2008 dans l'atlantique
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Accueil » Forum »  Actualités:  Saison cyclonique 2008 dans l'atlantique |
| concorde a écrit: |
flagrant délit d'alarmisme toi aussi  |
allez, vas regarder la météo du Nigeria et on rediscute
Ca fait 10 ans que je suis des cyclones, je crois m'y connaitre un tout petit peu
| 6klôn a écrit: | ||
non, je traduis juste les propos du groupe de météorologues avec qui je discute, des spécialistes mondialement reconnus, et qui me montrent des modèles à H+104. l'eau, c'est dans le kit de prévention cyclone que je recommande d'avoir chez soi dès le 1er juin, à consulter sur Ouragans.com, et ça ne se gaspille pas. Je n'ai pas dit qu'une ile allait être touchée, je n'ai pas donné de date, je n'ai pas donné d'intensité, j'ai juste conseillé de surveiller une zone qui n'est même pas encore maritimée allez, vas regarder la météo du Nigeria et on rediscute
quand je prends le temps d'annoncer quelque chose à si longue échéance, rassure toi, ce n'est pas innocent Ca fait 10 ans que je suis des cyclones, je crois m'y connaitre un tout petit peu |
| Citation: |
| Karambole-972 a écrit:
* Constituez et stockez une réserve alimentaire raisonnable en lieu sûr : riz, haricots, conserves, sucre, lait en poudre, huile, biscuits (les aliments essentiels qui se conservent sans électricité, pour les protéines sardines, thon en boite, viande séchée qqchose de très rare de nos jours) * une réserve d'eau potable 20L / personne (pour les riches de l'eau minérale sinon investissez dans des bidon de 20L et 50L penser à changer l'eau de temps en temps) * une réserve d'eau de javel (afin de désinfecter les eaux saumâtres) * Outils divers:hache, scie, clous, marteau, film plastique, bâche, contreplaqué, bidons plastique type jerrican, serpillières, seaux, bougies ou lampes à gaz ou à pétrole, allumettes.(briquet au cas où les allumettes prennent la flôtte), RUBAN ADHESIF. * trousse de premiers secours : pansements, alcool à 70°, mercryl, coton hydrophile, compresses, sparadrap * d'un poste de radio portatif et d'une réserve de piles * vaccinations à jour et de celles de votre entourage, contre le TETANOS et la POLIO Mettre l'ensemble du kit dans un lieu facile d'accès et connu de tous PERSO Mettez vos papiers importants ( CI , titre de propriété, assurance maison, auto factures... dans des sacs "Waterprouf") Pour finir pour les amoureux de leurs jardins mettre l'abri un plan de leur plante ou arbre préféré. |
| whitey a écrit: |
| le floater du ramdis:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_2
l'onde dont parle 6klon, actuellement sur le togo. |
| 6klôn a écrit: |
| @concorde
@Karambole: check list cyclonique |
| h2o a écrit: |
| Bertha suit les courants directeurs....
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html Légère remontée jusqu'au 19-20N entre maintenant et demain puis elle va surfer entre le 20 et le 23N jusqu'au 63W pour ensuite amorcer son grand virage vers le NW puis le N.... Concernant les iles du Nord je pense que l'épisode Bertha va se résumer a un bon passage pluvieux (genre une onde active) et un bon train de vague vu que Bertha aura eu une trajectoire assez rectiligne vers l'ouest.... Amis surfeurs...je sais que vous salivez...mais faites quand même gaffe !!!...la mer pardonne rarement ! |
| clipse a écrit: |
|
Coriace la petite!! |
....
| Citation: |
| BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM AST SUN JUL 06 2008 ...BERTHA STRENGTHENING...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1055 MILES...1700 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT ANY LAND AREAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND BERTHA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. |
| Elcondor a écrit: |
| D'après le run du CMC Bertha semble lâcher un "missile" qui se dirigera droit vers l'arc!
Cela est du style : "Je passe en rase motte et je leur lâche une petite grenade car je n'ai pas les moyens de leur donner une bonne tape...!" |
| Citation: |
| ..SPECIAL FEATURE....
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.6N 48.9W AT 07/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 810 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/ WTNT42 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERTHA IS EXPERIENCING SOME SHEAR WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE W OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 18N50W TO 22N47W. BERTHA HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR HAS BEEN WEAKENING SOMEWHAT. BERTHA WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. |
| Citation: |
| BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM AST MON JUL 07 2008 ...BERTHA BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST OR ABOUT 845 MILES... 1365 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS BERTHA REMAINS OVER THE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT ANY LAND AREAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. (...) ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. |
| Citation: |
| The 2008 hurricane season's first hurricane is here--Hurricane Bertha. Bertha is the earliest forming July hurricane since Hurricane Cindy (July 6, 2005) and Hurricane Dennis (July 7, 2005). Bertha took advantage of warmer Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) of 27°C and modest wind shear of 10-15 knots to put on a burst of intensification to hurricane strength overnight. The storm has continued to intensify since the 5 am EDT NHC advisory, with some satellite estimates giving Bertha 90 mph winds--just below the threshold of Category 2 status. Visible satellite loops show a well-formed eye with excellent upper-level outflow to the north. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first visit to Bertha on Tuesday afternoon to get a better idea of the storm's true strength.
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| anachrom a écrit: |
| Et ça a des chances de toucher les antilles où y a aucune chance ?? |
| Citation: |
| The intensity forecast
SSTs will continue to warm to 28°C Tuesday morning underneath Bertha, but wind shear is expected to increase some, to 15-20 knots. Bertha should intensify into a Category 2 hurricane today. Higher wind shear should halt intensification on Tuesday. Wind shear is expected to stay in the 15-25 knot range for the remainder of the week, and it is unlikely that Bertha can intensify beyond Category 3 status. The GFDL predicts Bertha will peak at Category 2 status, and the HWRF takes it to Category 3 strength (941 mb) five days from now. |
| Citation: |
| ...BERTHA STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...COULD REACH
CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY LATER TODAY... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST OR ABOUT 775 MILES... 1250 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BERTHA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...19.6 N...51.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB. |
| Citation: |
| ...CORRECTED PRESSURE...
...BERTHA STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...COULD REACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY LATER TODAY... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST OR ABOUT 775 MILES... 1250 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BERTHA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...19.6 N...51.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. |
| Citation: |
| The track forecast
Bertha will start to slow down over the next few days as it "feels" the approach of a trough of low pressure scheduled to move off the U.S. East Coast on Thursday. This trough will force Bertha on a more northwesterly track towards Bermuda, and most of the computer models foresee that Bertha will pass close to Bermuda 5-7 days from now. The exception is the GFS model, which predicts that Thursday's trough of low pressure will not be strong enough to recurve Bertha so far to the north. The GFS keeps Bertha farther south, bringing the storm on a track to pass close to the Carolinas early next week. So far, the GFS has been the most reliable model (Figure 2) tracking Bertha. However, the current run of the GFS depicts a considerably weaker storm […]. In short, the best forecast is to assume Bertha will recurve to the north and pass close to Bermuda by the end of the week. Whether or not this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Bertha northeastward into the hurricane graveyard of the North Atlantic is uncertain at this time. |
| h2o a écrit: |
|
- la première 9N38W - les parametres CIMSS m'ont l'air tres interessants |
| Karambole-972 a écrit: |
| Une question c'est une petite onde que l'on voit à l'est de la Dominique ou des nuages d'altitude? mes bananiers ont besoin d'eau! |
| Citation: |
| Hurricane 02L
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) Version 7.2 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm Current Intensity Analysis UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 7.2.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 07 JUL 2008 Time : 224500 UTC Lat : 20:28:27 N Lon : 52:00:39 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.1 / 946.5mb/117.4kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# (3hr avg) 5.9 5.8 5.8 Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.1mb Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km Center Temp : +12.6C Cloud Region Temp : -59.5C Scene Type : EYE Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF **************************************************** |
| Citation: |
| HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM AST MON JUL 07 2008 ...BERTHA STRENGTHEN TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.1 WEST OR ABOUT 730 MILES... 1175 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1150 MILES...1855 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES. |
| comode a écrit: |
| 117 kts ? la catégorie 4 commence à 114... |
| comode a écrit: |
| Pour la paquet nuageux de Karambole-972, meme chose que h2o, attendons qu'il sorte. statistiquement, il a bien plus de chance de disparaitre que de se transformer en perturbation tropicale. Par ailleur, les modèles ne semblent pas lui prédire d'avenir... |
| Citation: |
| 000
WTNT32 KNHC 080235 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM AST MON JUL 07 2008 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE BERTHA OVER OPEN WATERS... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.8 WEST OR ABOUT 695 MILES... 1115 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1085 MILES...1745 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE 12 TO 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...20.8 N...52.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
| comode a écrit: |
| 117 kts ? la catégorie 4 commence à 114... |
| Rico Dom a écrit: | ||
Je t'ai mis les catégories delon le NHC
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| Rémy a écrit: |
| H2O, je t'ai fait un MP hier , l'as tu lu ? |
....jy cours
| kannellia971 a écrit: |
| Bon grain de pluie orageux pour le nord
Preuve en image
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| karmachon a écrit: |
| Bonjour, Pourrions-nous avoir le/les liens nous permettant d'accéder aux différents run du GFS et autres. Merci bcp. |
| h2o a écrit: |
| Je zieute l onde axée sur le 51-53W, entre le 40 et le 50w cette onde avait une vorticité interessante. meme diminuer celle ci n est pas nulle.
La divergence et convergence sont positive d'apres le CIMSS et surtout elle va entrer dans une zone de TCHP conductif au developpement. Compte tenu des windshear sympa sur notre zone, Je pressens un bourgeonnement orageux signignificatif lors de son passage sur l'arc. |
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